Seven NBA Observations on Draft Buzz, JJ Redick, and Trade Season

AP Photo/Ringer illustration Draft night is shaping up to be full of surprises. What's the latest on the lottery? Plus, the Lakers' to-do list, the Josh Giddey trade, and the Hawks' dilemma. We're just days away from the NBA draft, and the league is buzzing! It's somehow been only a week since the Boston Celtics finished off the Dallas Mavericks in the Finals, but the offseason is already in full swing. Here are seven observations on the latest news and what to expect in the days and weeks to come. 1. The Oklahoma City Thunder Gain More Than Alex Caruso in the Josh Giddey Trade It's not often that we see a simple one-for-one trade in the NBA, but that's what we got Friday when the Thunder and Bulls swapped Josh Giddey and Alex Caruso. Giddey is only 21 years old and has a chance to become a very good 6-foot-8 playmaker for Chicago. Even though it's shocking that the Bulls didn't manage to get one of OKC's picks in the deal, it was still worth trading a 30-year-old, oft-injured role player for Giddey. But as a limited shooter, Giddey didn't fit in on OKC's starting lineup and wasn't willing to come off the bench for a franchise that is ready to contend. The Caruso acquisition gives Oklahoma City an elite defender, a 38 percent 3-point shooter, and an All-World do-whatever-it-takes-to-win type of player. Losing Giddey is also addition by subtraction for Oklahoma City. He was third on the Thunder in touches per game (56.5) and pick-and-rolls per game (4.6), behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams during the regular season. In the playoffs, Giddey's touches plummeted, which pushed him away from the ball and took away his value on the court. Without Giddey, who required touches to make a notable impact, Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace will be able to absorb more responsibility. The Giddey for Caruso trade benefits those two second-year players more than anyone. Wallace ran only 101 pick-and-rolls in 92 games last season, including the playoffs, per Synergy Sports. That's down from 257 possessions in 32 games as a Kentucky freshman. Though Wallace isn't a dynamic creator who breaks down defenders, he's capable off the dribble and limits turnovers. Since he's a knockdown shooter, he doesn't need the ball in his hands to contribute offensively; as a guard who will turn just 21 next season, he will merely benefit from more reps. The Thunder can also now be even more creative with Holmgren, who, at 7-foot-1, is a talented shot creator and scores efficiently using ball screens. OKC scored 1.08 points for each pick-and-roll run by Holmgren last season, but he ran only 78 of them. Giddey logged 388, and now a large chunk of them will go to Holmgren. Whether Caruso, Wallace, or Lu Dort is involved, the Thunder will be able to run inverted actions for Chet to create off the dribble, pull up and shoot, drive, or find an open teammate. Defenses will inevitably switch ball screens, which could lead to Chet getting more isolation and post-up reps; he had only 147 last season despite his efficient scoring and playmaking as a rookie. As good as Holmgren was last season, expect him to reach an even higher level with more touches. So while the trade was technically a one-for-one, the Thunder didn't just receive Caruso. They also created more developmental opportunities for the other talented young players on their team, raising their ceiling in both the short and long term. 2. The Atlanta Hawks' Uncertain Draft Night Plans It's still unclear what Atlanta will do with the first pick in Wednesday's draft. A little over a week ago, I reported that UConn center Donovan Clingan impressed Hawks brass in a private workout. Clingan remains one of their top choices. But I'm told that the Hawks would ideally prefer to trade down to take the 7-foot-2 sophomore center, rather than do so with the first choice. If the Hawks choose to keep Trae Young, Clingan would be a perfect fit. At 20 years old, Clingan is already an excellent screener and finisher at the rim who also displays some playmaking on the short roll and skill in the post. In a sense, he'd be a more advanced option than any of the ball screen partners Trae has had before. And as an excellent interior defender with a massive 7-foot-7 wingspan, he could help the Hawks build the best defense they've ever had. Clingan is my second-ranked player, in part because he's a safe pick who at worst will be a high-level two-way center. And if his offense blossoms, he could be great. The Hawks are still reviewing all their options, though, which is why on Sunday they hosted G League forward Matas Buzelis for his first workout with the franchise, according to league sources. Buzelis is the third-ranked prospect on my board because he's a tenacious 6-foot-9 defender who also brings great feel as a connective playmaker and flashes scoring upside. With so much attention on Clingan and the French prospects Alex Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher, Buzelis has been an overlooked option at the top of the draft. But last week, he also spent time visiting the Spurs (fourth pick), and he has previously worked out with both the Wizards (second) and Pistons (fifth). League sources say that much like the Hawks, the Wizards and Rockets (third) are also listening to trade offers for their selections. There are no locks yet, whether it's the pick or the team, so we could be in for some big surprises. 3. What Are the Portland Trail Blazers Up To? Leading up to the draft, there's a lot of focus on the Spurs, who own the fourth and eighth picks. But the Trail Blazers also own two lottery picks: the seventh and 14th. ESPN's Jonathan Givony reported earlier this month that the Trail Blazers hosted Clingan for a workout and he "isn't expected to drop past them" with the seventh pick. This report stood out to people around the NBA for a myriad of reasons, in part because Givony worked for years at Draft Express with Mike Schmitz, who now has an influential position within Portland's front office. But also because the Blazers already have two centers in Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams. Does Portland's reported interest in Clingan suggest that the team is just in "best player available" mode, no matter the position? Or could it say something about the Blazers' belief in Ayton as a long-term piece? Or the health of Williams? My gut feeling is that it's all of the above but that it's more about Ayton than Williams. Health has always been an issue for Williams, but Ayton has only two years remaining on his contract and remains frustratingly inconsistent. The Blazers also worked out Purdue center Zach Edey earlier in the month, and people around the NBA believe that they are also extremely high on him—not just for the 14th pick, but for their first choice at no. 7. The bottom line is that the Blazers seem to be looking to come away with a center to pair with Scoot Henderson and their other young pieces. And if Portland ends up with Clingan, Edey, or another center on Wednesday night, then perhaps there will be a domino effect this summer, with Ayton and Williams trades to follow. 4. Offseason Plan A Is Not Always Better Than Plan B Teams will enter this summer with grand plans. Some will get everything they hoped for. Others will need to pivot. But only time will tell what was for the best. One year ago, the Celtics entered the offseason knowing that they needed to make changes after falling short in the playoffs for the ninth straight year. League sources say that Boston's top priority was acquiring Kristaps Porzingis, who had three strong performances against the Celtics during his lone season with the Wizards and scored 32 points on just 21 shots and had 13 rebounds and six assists in their third matchup. Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens worked quickly to pursue Porzingis and ended up landing him and two first-round picks for Marcus Smart and one second in a three-way deal with the Grizzlies and Wizards. But as was widely reported at the time, the Celtics originally agreed to a deal that would have sent Malcolm Brogdon to the Clippers, instead of Smart to the Grizzlies. Concerns about Brogdon's health caused the Clippers to back out, forcing Boston to pivot to a Smart-based deal. At the time, many Celtics fans were crushed. Smart was a lifelong Celtic and a fan favorite. It hurt that the team dealt him instead of Brogdon, especially for a player as injury prone as Porzingis. But there's a detail missing from that initial saga: Sources from around the league say that once that KP for Brogdon deal was complete, Smart still would have been sent to the Grizzlies for Tyus Jones and two firsts. So even though it initially appeared that the Celtics would have acquired Porzingis without giving up Smart, he was going to be dealt anyway. If those two original deals had happened as Boston planned, there would have been no realistic way for the Celtics to acquire Jrue Holiday once he unexpectedly became available later in the summer. The Celtics would have ended up with KP and Jones instead. Maybe the Celtics would have ended up winning the title anyway without Holiday. We'll never know. But these failed and completed trades serve as a prime example that sometimes plan A isn't always for the best. Building a championship roster is both an art and a science, and a lot of good fortune is involved, too. 5. Is This It for the Warriors' Core? In recent weeks, Klay Thompson has dealt with his uncertain contract status with Golden State by unfollowing the Warriors on Instagram, removing photos of his teammates, and responding to trolls. These are actions you'd expect from an angsty teenager who got cut from his middle school team, not a four-time champion who's been paid more than $250 million in his Hall of Fame career. Contract negotiations can get ugly. The 34-year-old wants at least a three-year deal and more money than the Warriors are willing to spend. But they need to think about their future, both in the remaining years when Steph Curry is still a dominant player and beyond. Meanwhile, Thompson has spent the past two seasons sulking because he can't come to terms with his reduced role. Klay took the second-most shots on the team last season despite ranking eighth in true shooting percentage of the 12 Warriors players who received at least 500 minutes. If he stays, even on a discount, that means he will continue to take minutes away from Moses Moody and shots from Brandin Podziemski. Since returning from his devastating injuries—a torn ACL and a ruptured Achilles—Klay's game has changed dramatically. He's taking only 10 percent of his shots at the rim, a significant drop from his prime years. He's now a one-dimensional shooting specialist, and on defense he's become more of a target than a stopper. Yet he's handling the potential breakup like a self-sabotaging drama queen, making it seem like the Warriors might be better off without him. Why would they want him back if he's going to be a malcontent who refuses to accept that he's past his prime? Thompson probably feels that he deserves a legacy contract from the Warriors. The franchise's valuation has increased from the purchase price of $450 million in 2010 to more than $8 billion now, thanks in no small part to his contributions, alongside those of Steph and Draymond Green. But the Warriors already paid him about $90 million during the two and a half seasons he was out injured and about $100 million since then, while he's been a shadow of his former self. That contract was his lifetime achievement payday. Now, Klay faces a choice: stick with the core in Golden State and make the most of his twilight years, or head into the unknown. In the meantime, he should get off social media. 6. JJ Redick and the Lakers' Offseason Decisions I am a believer in JJ Redick's potential as a head coach. There are few people I've met who are as meticulous as he is in his attention to detail. He is an obsessive worker. And he is fueled by competition, which is why he left a cozy media job for the pressure of coaching the Los Angeles Lakers. But no matter how much X's-and-O's intelligence he displays hosting a podcast or broadcasting a game, being a good coach is about implementing it all on the fly, incorporating lineups and adjustments all while managing egos and developing players. We got an idea of Redick's vision, according to The Athletic: Multiple sources with direct knowledge of the meeting described Redick as "impressive" during his visit to Los Angeles. … He explained his decision-making process when it comes to strategy, how the analysis and empirical evidence would always guide his choices rather than preconceived notions or outdated beliefs. Redick described a system molded around this roster, focusing on elevating Anthony Davis's involvement, particularly late in games, and alleviating the constant ballhandling duties on James by utilizing him more off the ball. Keeping James, who turns 40 in December, fresh down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs will be critical. Keeping LeBron fresh means investing more in Austin Reaves than Darvin Ham was willing to. And it'll be on Rob Pelinka to find someone better than D'Angelo Russell to play point guard. Shams Charania said on The Pat McAfee Show that the Lakers remain interested in Hawks point guard Dejounte Murray, whose two-way abilities could make him an ideal fit next to James and Reaves. But as Charania noted, it's unclear whether the Hawks will trade Murray or Trae Young this summer, and their choice will be dependent on which player brings back greater value. If Murray is L.A.'s target, then it'd be easier to match salaries in a trade for him before his contract extension kicks in on July 1. And if the Lakers are looking for a center to allow AD to play power forward more frequently, then perhaps there's a deal to be done for both Murray and Clint Capela, who is being shopped around by the Hawks, according to league sources. Murray would help the backcourt. Capela would help the defense. Would Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, and Russell plus picks get it done? There are no guarantees that it will work out for Redick as a head coach. But to increase the chances that it will, the pressure is on Pelinka and the Lakers front office to make appropriate changes. 7. Why I'm All In on Devin Carter and Reed Sheppard On the latest episode of The Ringer's NBA Draft Show, I brought on Tom Haberstroh, who wrote a stellar piece for Yahoo Sports last week, to discuss the high success rate for second-generation NBA players. You can listen to the full episode here: I highly recommend giving the conversation a listen. But to summarize: Tom found that second-gen players have career lengths that average 2.3 years longer than all other draftees, and they perform 30 percent better than their expected draft position (using win shares as a metric). We spent extensive time discussing two players that fit that criterion in this upcoming class: Providence guard Devin Carter, whose dad, Anthony, played 13 years as an NBA role player, and Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard, whose dad won back-to-back college titles before playing 18 games with the Atlanta Hawks. Hey, a cup of coffee in the NBA counts, too. I don't think it's a coincidence that I love Carter and Sheppard. Both of them are ranked in my top five. Both of them play with an advanced feel and grit that's hard to be taught. Both of them, I believe, will have 10-plus-year careers in the NBA, which wouldn't be too unusual considering the success rate of second-gen pros. As the son of LeBron, Bronny James draws all the attention for obvious reasons. And he could someday pan out. But unlike James, it won't take long for Carter and Sheppard to hear their names called on draft night.

Seven NBA Observations on Draft Buzz, JJ Redick, and Trade Season

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